Abstract
Keywords engine, transmission, market share, forecast, emission control, particulate, alternative scenario, CO2, regulation
Abstract - There are an ever-increasing number of factors forcing change upon the light-duty vehicle powertrain. With limited investment funds, OEMs and suppliers alike are hard-pressed to decide in which technologies they should invest and to project the magnitude of the likely returns on those investments. To help put these investment decisions in context, GLOBAL INSIGHT and TIAX teamed together to examine the future of powertrain technologies. This study addresses the technical and business issues related to the evolution of the engine and transmission, the barriers that must be overcome to meet future goals, and the developments that will be required to overcome such challenges. To ensure that the conclusions are robust, this study also assesses the sensitivity of the forecast to changes in the economic, energy, and business environment.
Three possible scenarios for economic, energy, and business environment are developed for the
2008 to 2020 time frame. The future fuels, technology barriers and enablers, and the commercial aspects of possible evolutionary as well as revolutionary powertrain options were then discussed with traditional automotive suppliers, developers of new powertrain technologies, energy companies, and automotive manufacturers. A thorough analysis of their answers yielded scenario-specific forecasts along with the rationale behind them.
This paper highlights the methodology and the top-level conclusions of this comprehensive study. As such, it provides a brief overview of a forecast built upon numerous more detailed analyses, which will provide direction and guidance to industry strategists, planners, and investors as they place their bets on future powertrain technology.