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Medium Term Projection of Energy Consumption and Transport Activity in Slovenia
JUMV_SMV_09/27

Authors

Tomaž Katrašnik - University of Ljubljana
Štefan Ivanjko - EIMV – Electric Power Research Institute
Ferdinand Trenc - University of Ljubljana
Samuel Rodman Oprešnik - University of Ljubljana

Abstract

Analysis of energy consumption for the basic year 2006 and for the medium term period up to the year 2030 for general electric and other energy consumers in Slovenia has been prepared by the EIMV - Electric Power Research Institute and by The Department of Power Engineering from the Faculty of mechanical Engineering, University of Ljubljana for the Elektro Slovenija, d.o.o. - Slovenian Transmission System Operator. Beides Industry and Other electricity consumers, transport sector and its energy consumption was observed as well, although energy consumprion of the transport is generally linked to the liquid fuels, where electric energy plays inferior role.

A specially purpose computer program MEDEE was applied to calculate all energy consumption sectors and takes into account specific input data. Medium term prognoses of the performed work and of the consumed energy is the main output of this program and serves for further prognoses and analyses.

2006 was selected as the reference year, where overal energy consumption for different energetic surces - different fuels such as: gasoline, diesel fuel, kerosene and electric energy consumed in Slovenia for the transport sector as a whole was known.

The first task was therefore to determine specific fuel consumption of different sub sectors that set up the transport sector for the known model year.

Six different prognosis scenarios for medium term development of the Transport activity and energy consumption for the next 24 years - up to the year 2030 were then set up. As the result analysis and prognosis for the transport sector with major sub sectors with regard to the transport activity and energy (fuel) consumption was performed and gave also some interresting supplementary side data that can be used for quantitative and qualitative evaluation of the transport in Slovenia.

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