Abstract
Given the current momentum in low-carbon electric power generation (i.e. the growth in share of solar, wind, and natural gas and their displacement of coal), it is now clear that moving forward battery electric vehicle (BEV) miles will have a low well-to-wheels greenhouse gas footprint in all major global markets. With this in mind, many analysts have applied battery cost learning curves to project a price-parity “tipping point” from which BEVs take over the mainstream market, deliver sustainable transportation to the masses, and bring down the curtain on the age of the internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV). However, a weakness in many of these analyses is that they focus on an “average” vehicle and fail to capture the diversity of vehicle demand profiles across the consumer base. In this work, consumer value is assessed for various BEVs (driving range of 150, 160, …, 300 miles) over a range of potential battery pack costs ($200/kWh, $180/kWh, …, $60/kWh) under three scenarios using detailed trip data sets. The BEV cost-per-mile is compared against a baseline ICEV cost-per-mile to understand the potential depth of BEV market disruption. One conclusion is that the BEV market will undergo a series of stepwise disruptions as battery pack costs drop to $120/kWh or lower. A second conclusion is that supporting infrastructure, set in place to fill gaps in BEV functionality, will be required for the widespread adoption of BEVs. It follows from these conclusions that prudent policy should seek a cadenced shift to BEVs, with initial focus on battery pack cost reduction and secondary focus on supporting infrastructures. The ICEV will play a key role along the way in supporting BEVs, and it may in fact prove enduring in its support role.