Abstract
Countermeasures to reduce the number of fatalities continuously developed during the last decades. It takes years for a safety technology to make an impact in the field and even more time passes until sufficient data for statistical ex-post analyses are available. Research and policy decisions are often based on the current accident situation even though it is fairly obvious that in the future, when these decisions take effect, the accidents will differ from today’s situation. This study aims to estimate the future situation of fatal accidents in the US and to contrast it to the current situation in order to be able to prioritize today’s research efforts according to the future needs. The method was based on reasonable assumptions about vehicle technologies implemented in passenger vehicles by 2030. These technologies were grouped into improved passive safety, standard active safety technology, and advanced active safety technologies. Simplified rules were created to describe how these technologies prevent accidents (for active safety) and fatalities (for passive safety) from occurring. These rules were then applied to the National Automotive Sampling System Crashworthiness Data System (NASS-CDS) database. An optimistic and a conservative ruleset reflected uncertainty resulting from simplifications. Effectiveness of improved passive safety, standard Advanced Driver Assistance System (ADAS), advanced ADAS and their combinations in preventing fatalities were calculated. Current and future residual fatal accidents involving passenger vehicles were contrasted. Recommendations for future passive safety systems in passenger vehicles were given from the analysis of the residual to guide attention in research