Abstract
This paper aims to exploring alternative fuel pathways for Vietnam’s transportation by using scenario analysis. The paper develops and analyses three scenarios for Vietnam’s transportation that are both exploratory and quantitative. The Base Scenario or Business As Usual reflects the current situation of Vietnam’s transportation sector with low economic development, low level of commitments to climate-friendly-energy production and few technological breakthroughs. Two other scenarios, the Moderate and Advanced scenarios, represent contexts where clean fuels and fuel economy play a greater role in addressing challenges faced by the transportation sector, such as dependency on imported fuels, low fuel economy and environmental pollution caused by exhausted emissions. Future fuel consumption, composition of road transport vehicles, fuel diversity and green gas emissions are analysed for each scenario through 2025. New fuels, fuel economy, and travel habits are identified as promising opportunities for achieving alternative fuel pathways for transportation in Vietnam. The paper concludes with a set of policy implications revealed from the scenarios analysis for Vietnam. They are: (i) The cleaner, more diversified and efficient energy pathway is likely to be a direction for development of the Vietnam’s energy system in the next 50 years; (ii) Energy diversity, energy savings and CO2 reduction from energy activities are important forces that would shape future development of the country’s energy system; (iii) Due to limited indigenous energy reserves, diversity of energy supply in Vietnam means a strong connection with decrease in fossil fuel consumption and increase in renewable energy use in order to reduce dependency on imported energy and hence enhance energy security; (iv) The security of energy supply could also be improved through energy savings by applying energy efficiency and conservation measures in both supply and demand sides; And the negative impacts from energy activities on environment, especially the global warming caused by CO2 emissions could be mitigated by increasing share of renewable energy and reducing fossil fuel consumption in total energy mix.
Keywords: Scenario Analysis and Alternative Fuel Pathways