Abstract
Keywords
Atmospheric pollutant, mobility, number of vehicles, emission, fleet
Abstract
This paper presents a study of pollutant emissions by vehicles in Spain for the period 1988-2010, part of the SETISMO project, a global study of transportation in Spain. The study is based on the use of COPERT III software, of wide acceptance in Europe.
The study for 1988-1999 emissions focused on the obtaining of the input data for COPERT. The lack of data as well as the aggregated form of the available data were the main difficulties of the process, and required the design of a specific methodology for the Spanish case and that particular period. The period 2000-2010 was based upon two scenarios defined in terms of macroeconomical variables: GNP, population and infrastructure investment. These were used, through an economical model, to predict mobility for the period. The vehicle emission forecast was calculated upon that basis, considering future regulations, expectable technological evolution and other variables.
The main results of the study are the emission series for the pollutants considered, although the research process and the methodology followed led to secondary results of equal statistical value in terms of precision and de-aggregation. The resulting total number of vehicles in Spain is the most precise estimation available, the official statistics having been corrected. Every result of the study was obtained in de-aggregated form according to COPERT categorization.