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Dangerous Curves Ahead: An Empirical Investigation of the Relationship between Road Safety and Economic Development
GTE-SEPT02/406a

Authors

Kopits, Elizabeth - University of Maryland

Abstract

As countries develop, they become more motorized and this expansion in road transport encourages further economic growth. One significant negative externality associated with increases in vehicle ownership and the number of vehicle miles traveled, however, is road traffic accidents and road fatalities. Although there is an extensive literature related to improving road safety around the world, much of it focuses on alleviating particular aspects of the road crash problem or phases of the motor vehicle injury event in a particular location. For example, while transport safety professionals concentrate on improving road conditions, driversÂ’ behavior, and other factors that affect the pre-crash phase of the motor vehicle injury event, vehicle engineers focus on implementing new technologies that make the crash more survivable. This paper takes a much broader look at the issue of road safety using a cross-country reduced form economic model of traffic fatalities. The relationship between road safety and economic development is investigated using an Environmental Kuznets Curve. The findings suggest there exists an inverted U-shaped relationship between traffic fatality rates and per capita income within a country. Furthermore, the eventual decline in fatalities per person is driven by decreases in the number of fatalities per vehicle. These results provide a starting point for future research that will examine what policy variables and other factors may influence this relationship using a theoretical model of traffic accidents.

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